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Life goes on
My father was reprimanded by one of the staff at the care home for giving his pudding to another resident. He didn't want it; she did. The other resident, who must be at least 80, was gaining weight and the staff were concerned that something 'sinister' was the cause. Restricting her calorie intake must have been their response.
I have visited my parents in the home for six months and have noticed that the one who ate the extra pudding is going downhill. Last year she could walk and talk. Now she staggers and says little other than she must be getting home. The cause of her gain in weight, I think, is irrelevant. Time is running out for her; nature is trying to speed up the process. People with dementia ought to be allowed to die unmolested.
My mother has noticed that the residents wind each other up. One comes up with an odd idea and convinces the others to join in. There was a bit of commotion in the hall one afternoon as my mother went by to go upstairs. G and her boyfriend S were by the front door. G said loudly that they couldn't get out because the door was locked. Why do you want to go out? asked my mother. To go home, was the reply. Where is home? G gave the name of a town about six miles away. How will you get there? It's too far to walk. S has a car in the car park outside. My mother thought this most unlikely so she told G that she doubted S had any car keys. S put his hands in his pockets to search for keys and, unsurprisingly, found none. He indicated to G that his pockets were empty. You must have left them at home she told him.
Meanwhile, another resident had joined the gathering and said that if they were going out then he would come too. G and S walked away seeming to realise that their plans were thwarted by the lack of car keys.
Thought for today
It's all right letting yourself go, as long as you can get yourself back.
Mick Jagger, (1943 - ) British rock musician
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9.4.07 19:48
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Facts from figures
I unearthed a book about statistics today. Here is an extract from the first chapter.
There is more than a germ of truth in the suggestion that, in a society where statisticians thrive, liberty and individuality are likely to be emasculated. Historically, Statistics is no more than State Arithmetic, a system of computation by which differences between individuals are eliminated by the taking of an average. It has been used -- indeed, still is used -- to enable rulers to know just how far they may safely go in picking the pockets of their subjects. A king going to war wishes to know what reserves of manpower and money he can call on. How many men need be put in the field to defeat the enemy? How many guns and shirts, how much food, will they need? How much will all this cost? Have the citizens the necessary money to pay for the king's war? Taxation and military service were the earliest fields for the use of Statistics. For this reason was Domesday Book compiled.
We are reminded of the ancient statisticians every Christmas when we read that Caesar Augustus decreed that the whole world should be enrolled, each man returning to his own city for registration. Had it not been for the statisticians Christ would have been born in the modest comfort of a cottage in Nazareth instead of in a stable in Bethlehem. The story is a symbol of the blindness of the planners of all ages to the comfort of the individual. They just didn't think of the overcrowding there would be in a little place like Bethlehem.
Thought for today
The statistician's job is to draw general conclusions from fragmentary data. Too often the data supplied to him for analysis are not only fragmentary but positively incoherent, so that he can do next to nothing with them. Even the most kindly statistician swears heartily under his breath whenever this happens.
M J Moroney, Facts from Figures, 1951
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10.4.07 19:20
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Fallacies from statistics
Found another book about statistics: Principles of Medical Statistics by Sir Austin Bradford Hill, 1967. Here is an interesting section.
After very careful enquiry it is shown that of motorcar drivers involved in accidents a certain proportion, say three-quarters, had consumed alcohol during some period of hours previous to the accidents, and one-quarter had not. The deduction that alcohol contributes to the risk of accident is not justified from these figures alone. It is well recognised that white sheep eat more than black sheep -- because there are more of them. Before the ratio of 3 'alcoholics' to 1 'non-alcoholic' amongst the accident cases can be interpreted, information is also required as to the comparable ratio amongst drivers not involved in accidents. Suppose, for example, there are 1000 drivers on the roads, and 48 accidents are recorded. Of the 48 drivers involved in these accidents three-quarters are found to have consumed alcohol -- i.e. 36 -- and one-quarter -- i.e. 12 -- have not. If three-quarters of all the 1000 drivers have consumed alcohol within a few hours of driving and one-quarter have not, then the populations 'exposed to risk' of accident are 750 and 250. The accident-rates are, then, identical -- namely, 36 in 750 and 12 in 250, or 4.8 per cent in each group. A knowledge of the exposed to risk, or at least of the ratio of alcohol consumers to non-consumers in a random sample of all drivers, is essential before conclusions can be drawn from the ratio in the accident cases.
Careful inquiry into the destination of drivers involved in accidents on a Sunday morning might show that a larger proportion was driving to golf than to church. The inference that driving to golf is a more hazardous occupation is not valid until we are satisfied that there are not, in this case, more black sheep than white sheep. Lest it should be thought that undue stress is being laid upon the obvious, the following quotation from a debate in the House of Lords may be of interest. A noble Lord is reported (Times, February 7, 1936) to have said that 'only 4 per cent of the drivers involved in fatal road accidents were women, and that was because they drove more slowly.' Without evidence of the hours of driving endured (perhaps a fitting word nowadays) by each sex -- and perhaps of the type of area -- that conclusion cannot be justified.
Thought for today
In politics, as on the sickbed, people toss from side to side, thinking they will be more comfortable.
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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11.4.07 20:30
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Use and abuse of statistics
Came across another book about statistics this morning. This one, the title as above, was by W J Reichmann and published in 1968. It is just as good as the other two I mentioned here. Like the others it contains humour. Who world have thought that a book about statistics could, in places, be funny. Here follows an extract from a chapter entitled 'Popping the question'.
The most appropriate form of sample having been decided upon and the actual sample having been selected, all that is then necessary is to bombard its members with questions in the hope of receiving intelligent replies. That is all! It sounds so simple but it is a deceptive simplicity and this particular aspect of a survey is fraught with as many, if not more, difficulties as are encountered anywhere else in the sampling process. ...
Special attention to the phrasing of the questions is absolutely essential. Silly questions, it is said, receive silly replies. And they do! Additionally, when one deals habitually with the public, it is soon borne in upon one's consciousness that it is not even necessary to ask silly questions in order to get silly answers. The latter come of their own accord. The answer is very often a lemon. In one survey into the use of shaving preparations, a respondent was asked, 'What do you use for shaving?', the expected answer being a reference to some kind of toilet preparation. In a broad Irish accent he announced that he 'always used boilin' hot water!' The question itself was at fault since it did not make clear to the person interviewed just what it was asking about. It could just as easily have been referring to the type of razor used.
The main essential is that the respondent should clearly understand the question. Questions should therefore be short and very much to the point, employing the simplest words possible. But to understand is not enough. If the survey is to be successful, each and every respondent should interpret the question in exactly the same way, and this interpretation must be exactly the same as that intended by the researcher. The wording therefore needs to be unambiguous. When a young suitor pops the question and asks his girl-friend if she will become his wife, she should not have to sit back and reflect 'What does he mean by that?' although she might later wish that she had done so. Yet, try as we may, it is not always possible to achieve the eminently desirable lack of ambiguity. What is unambiguous to a reasonable intelligent person may still give trouble to another individual. Even the simplest phrases can be either misunderstood or interpreted in different ways, and the use of vague adjectives such as large, small, cheap and dear should be avoided unless qualified by some degree of measurement of size or price respectively.
Quote for today
I always find that statistics are hard to swallow and impossible to digest. The only one I can ever remember is that if all the people who go to sleep in church were laid end to end they would be a lot more comfortable.
Mrs Robert A Taft
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12.4.07 19:17
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A grand day out -- almost
Went to London today. I am glad I don't live there and am glad I never worked there. The noise, the people, the traffic. I prefer the country. In fact, I prefer the dentist's surgery -- the reason for my visit to London. It was peaceful in there. I had a comfortable rest on the couch, apart from when the dentist applied electric currents to two of my teeth to see if one of them was still alive; its root has decayed. The first tooth was the control, to check that the probe was working, and to show me what the suspect tooth should feel. There was life in it but not as much as there should have been.
Leaving the surgery I rushed back to the mainline station and caught an early enough train to arrive home before the p and d left. However, I reckoned without the train company. The driver 'forgot to stop', as the guard later put it when he apologised over the tannoy, at my station. Why couldn't he have jammed on the brakes and reversed? If he had stopped at the next station and allowed passengers the opportunity to get off, that would have helped. I could have walked from there and would have arrived home earlier than I did. The train carried on to its next scheduled stop three stations further down the line. We had to wait half an hour for the next up train, and weren't even offered free refreshments as mild compensation for the mistake. The train we had taken stayed in the station for another 15 minutes before departing. The guard refused my request for a free cup of tea.
Not only were passengers on the train inconvenienced but so were those waiting at the station to collect them, and those waiting at the station to get on the train. I shall write a letter of complaint.
Thought for today
Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote.
George Jean Nathan
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13.4.07 20:44
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Modern life
There was a brief item in the paper today about a book-swapping club. A woman who had joined it reckoned she had saved £600 in a year by so doing. If she'd joined a library she would have saved even more. If she had a computer, a PDA and internet access she could have downloaded ebooks by the ton and carried a small library with her.
My annoyance at the train driver's failure to stop at my station yesterday ceased with my composure of a letter of complaint. Now I have to reconnect my computer, disconnected to clear space for the p and d, to print it. If I receive a reply I shall be surprised.
The resident in the care home who ate my father's pudding last week to the concern of the staff because she is gaining weight, had a birthday a few days ago. She was 89 said my mother. Does it matter if an 89 year old with dementia gains weight? It costs someone, probably a relative, £30k a year to keep her in the home.
Thought for today
Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious.
Oscar Wilde
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14.4.07 20:14
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An early summer
Another hot day. I shall be glad of cooler weather, preferably without frost. The peas are almost an inch high, and the broad beans now have visible shoots. I hope the pigeons keep away.
Emptied the current compost bin and put the stuff at the bottom in the ready bin; fresh rubbish is now at the bottom of the current bin for worms, woodlice, ants and all sorts of creepy crawlies to play in.
Listened to Desert Island Discs which I taped two weeks ago when the HN and I were busy changing sockets. The castaway was Professor Raymond Tallis -- physician, philosopher and poet said the presenter -- and I wished to hear what he had to say. He used the expression 'unpacking the miracle of everyday life' which I liked.
Initially he was against assisted dying but had changed his mind. Assisted dying is when the patient makes the final move, unlike euthanasia in which the doctor does. He said that anyone objecting to assisted dying forces a patient to fight their way out of life, and forces them to suffer for the sake of the objector's beliefs, not theirs.
Asked about the Labour government's setting targets in the NHS, he said that if you have targets you reach them; things are fiddled so you reach the targets. He was not a fan of the current government.
Thought for today
When man wanted to make a machine that would walk he created the wheel, which does not resemble a leg.
Guillaume Apollinaire, (1880 - 1918) French poet
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15.4.07 20:29
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